Walid Muallem’s visit to Iran

Walid Muallem’s visit to Iran

Dr. Jassim Taqui

The strategic circles here follows with keen interest the visit of the Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem to Iran along with the Chairman of National Security Bureau Gen. Ali Mamluk. This interest stems from the emergence of the anti-US Russian-Turkish-Iranian axis in Syria and the Middle East along the lines of the Russia-China- Pakistan axis in South Asia. Moscow dominates things in both axes with the advent of the new US President Donald Trump to power in the United States.

Trump has shown keenness to end the US-EU sanctions against Russia enforced following Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.

The Syrian delegation met with Iran's foreign minister, Javad Zarif, known for being a strongman in Iran because of his influence over the Iranian Murshid Ali Khamenei, his clandestine relationship with the US administration and special ties with the Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem.

The delegation also met with Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security of Iran. Shamkhani is responsible for different Iranian militias fighting alongside the forces of Bashar al-Assad.

The visit of the Syrian delegation on Saturday, January 7 has come one day after the announcement of the ceasefire agreement in Syria. It was Russia and Turkey who concluded the agreement in the absence of the United States. This shows a major US diplomatic failure in Syria to the extent that former President Barack Obama appeared on the US televisions on the last day of his term admitting the failure of his policy in Syria. In a self-criticism high mode, Obama took the responsibility for the killing of innocent people, especially children in Syria. Obama was making a great effort to control his tears while television showed Vice President Joseph Biden standing beside him and looking to Obama with contempt though Biden was equally responsible for the holocaust of the Syrian children.

Putin pursued a pragmatic policy in dealing with the  Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. After publicly accusing him of supporting the IS (Daesh) and proving the same with evidence, which showed his intelligence agencies were helping Daesh selling  stolen Syrian and Iraqi oil, Putin imposed sanctions on the Erdogan regime. However, relations started to improve when the Russian Intelligence uncovered a CIA-sponsored coup and enable the Turkish intelligence agencies to foil, arresting all CIA agents in Turkey.

Both Syria and Iran are concerned over the strong Russian-Turkish relations especially when the Russian President Vladimir Putin made a pledge to expel the Iranian militias from Syria. This would inevitably weaken both Bashar al-Assad and Ali Shamkhani. On the long run, the step would rid Syria and Iraq of dominance the Iranian militias and the sectarian slogans they raise; claiming that they were in Syria and Iraq defending the holy shrines.

The Russian-Turkish agreement has marginalized Syria as a protector of the Russian interests in the region. Now, it is Turkey, which is promising to withdraw from the NATO and to allow for the passage of the Russian gas pipeline through the Turkish lands on their way to supply EU with Russian cheap and environmentally friendly natural gas. This practically kills the Qatari gas pipeline to transfer gas to EU via Syrian territories, which has been the initiator of the civil war in Syria. Bashar al-Assad refused to permit the Qatar gas pipelines to pass through the Syrian territories under the Russian pressure or/ and secret deal. Qatar and its allies tried everything to bring down the regime of Bashar through a devastating 2011-2017 civil war. This is the real reason behind the Syrian civil war that killed and wounded millions of people; mainly children and women.

The general perception is that there is a secret understanding between Putin and Trump about the unity of the Syrian territory. Putin and Trump support the revival of the old secular regime in Syria and the liquidation of pro- al-Qaida militant organizations including Daesh, Al-Nusrah, and the Army of Islam.

The understanding includes also scaling down the Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq, forcing Tehran to abandon its "velayat-e faqih" approach that Tehran used to justify military interventions through proxy wars in the Gulf region and North Africa. So Iranians feel concerned by the Turkish- Russian axis and the behind-the-scene Trump support.

The Trump policy is centered on canceling Obama's Middle East policy and the principle of "creative chaos" and bring things to the state they were at before the start of the Arab Spring movement in 2011. Trump stressed on this policy during his election campaigns and there are no indications to suggest that he intends to change his mind after assuming the presidency of the United States of America.

It is expected that  Bashar al-Assad would relinquish the presidency and that his successor would be a "dark horse" of the Alawites sect. The new President would be supported by the victorious factions in the Syrian civil war especially the Christian and the Kurds, who repelled Daesh and liberated Aleppo along with the Syrian National Army.