South Asian nuclear doctrine and the secret plan

South Asian nuclear doctrine and the secret plan

Dr. Jassim Taqui

Celebrating the 4^th anniversary of the establishment of the Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), two brilliant strategic specialists: Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema and Ross Masood Hussain combined to produce a bi-monthly seminar on South Asian Nuclear Doctrines: Deterrence, Equilibrium, and Strategic Stability. A galaxy of specialists took part in the seminar including Dr. Zafar Iqbal Cheema, Gen. Sayed Mohammad Owais, Dr. Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, and Dr. Rizwana Abbassi spoke in details about the subject.

It strikes me that Dr. Cheema summarized the outcome of the seminar by stating that an Indian preemptive nuclear strike to cripple Pakistan was rationally impossible due to the capability of Pakistan to launch the second nuclear strike.

Having heard all speeches, opinions and questions-answers session for over three hours, I thought that there was something missing. Suddenly an idea flashed in my mind. I recalled the disintegration of the Soviet Union with over 3000 nuclear bombs like a house of cards in 1991. Hence, I started formulating the CIA model of disintegrating the mighty Soviet Union and the possible Indo-US secret plan to disintegrate Pakistan in the same pattern.

The United State could never have won the Cold War through a preemptive strike or the Nuclear First Use (NFU). Hence, the CIA penetrated the top Soviet leadership and the decision-makers. It cultivated the trio Mikhail Gorbachev, Boris Yeltsin and Edward Shevardnadze who combined to do the job.

Gorbachev was the main culprit through his glasnost (openness) and Perestroika (reconstruction). As the names suggest, the plan was to bring down the Soviet Union and rebuild a new state on the pretext of reviving an “ailing economy,” though Bogachev presented a vague economic reform plan and allowed the drunken Yeltsin to disintegrate the Soviet Union in 1991.

Gorbachev could not explain as for why he replaced the brilliant Andrei Gromyko with Eduard Shevardnadze as Minister of Foreign Affairs even as the former served 28 years in the post. Neither he could justify dumping senior Soviet leaders and replace them with mediocre that culminated to banning the Russian Communist Party.

I remember in 1989, two years before the disintegration of the Soviet Union, I wrote in The Muslim predicting the disintegration. Initially, I was following Shevardnadze’s visit to Israel that created doubt in my mind when he agreed to “unlimited” immigration of the Soviet Jews to Israel in contrast to Helsinki Agreement between Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan. Through conducting research on the idiosyncratic of the trio Gorbachev, Yeltsin, and Shevardnadze, I found some hint of the bigger conspiracy.

I followed also Indo-US secret talks and the anti-Pakistan agreement called “The Vision” during Bill Clinton era. Soon, the secret plan was changed into a public “strategic partnership” and subsequently to the transfer of the US nuclear technology to India.

The Pentagon went wild when it published in its official magazine a map of the disintegration of Pakistan. The Pentagon went to the extent of leaking to the media a plan of seizing the nuclear assets of Pakistan.

Washington brought India to Afghanistan, creating a second anti-Pakistan front.

In more than one occasion, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi proclaimed that he intended to dismember Pakistan as a punishment for alleged Pak support of the Kashmiri people who struggle to exercise their rights to self-determination.

All these facts fit well with the US-Indo secret plan of using the Soviet Model to disintegrate Pakistan as a mean to seize its nuclear assets.